PeakOilWhen -- The BiPSA Way
BiPSA is a tool designed to resolve controversies like the PeakOilWhen question. It is based on the principle that for the long run, nobody, however bright, is any match for the wisdom of the relevant community as a whole. It is especially applicable to controversies that the victims of their mistaken resolution is the community itself. It is easier to recover from a mistake for which the victim has only himself to blame.
For a primer on the tool and the methodology, and for details regarding
its principles and operation please review:
[BiPSA: From Controversy to Consensus]
History of the BiPSA PeakOilWhen Initiative:
The first BiPSA round was carried out in 2005, and reported in the
Beijing
International Renewable Energy Conference. The second round was posted
May 2007, focusing on a single BiPSA question: "Will Peak Oil Occur
before the end of 2010?". Hundreds of oil-thoughtful people
responded,
and the report will be unveiled on October 19, in Cleveland, Ohio.
The September 2007 Round:
Upgrading from and building upon the successful May 2007 run, we now
upgrade the operation into three types of questionnaires:
The Direct Questions refer to three time frames: 2010, 2015, and 2020. Oil thoughtful people are solicited for their opinion on the possibility that the global Peak-Oil will occur between now, and the designated year. The spread of the BiPSA answers over the three chosen time frames will be BiPSA integrated into the most probable time frame, as it emerges from the integration of the various opinions.
The Integration will depend on the confience of the voter in his or her own answer, on his or her a-priori credentials, and on voter's performance with the related short range impact adjusting votes. See below. The neural integration will be conducted on the basis of the ranked relative importance of the various disciplines of knowledge, as voted on in the Discipline Ranking Vote form.
The Discipline Ranking Vote allows for every stakeholder (practically every residence of planet earth) to vote his or her opinion as to which discipline of knowledge should count more when appraising the impact of a given vote. Please vote, and urge anybody to lend his opinion.
The related short-range impact adjusting votes refer to a chosen list of oil and energy related stocks, soliciting the voters' opinion with respect to the rise or fall of each stock over the designated time period. The idea here is that oil mavens will have insight into the dynamics of oil and energy, and that insight will express itself both in a thoughtful opinion with respect to Peak Oil, and to a correct opinion with respect to the fortunes of these oil and energy stock. And since the stock vote refers to a shorter time frame, one will be able to readjust the impact of each voter on the Peak Oil question on account of his or her success with respect to the stock questions. Peak Oil voters may choose not to respond to any stock question, and still be fully counted. However, a success record with respect to stock behavior will boost the voter's impact in the global peak oil integration.
As a bonus, the stock voters would be given the integrated vote on the stock they voted on, and hence be aware of how the community of their peers thinks about this stock. Their peer might support their own opinion, and give the voters a sesne of condience to buy or sell this stock as the case may be, or, conversely, the group vote might contradict one's own, also serving the voter's appraisal of risk.
Voters for all questions are encouraged to send us their comments. Their words will be kept in an argument database, available for all site visitors. See What Your Peers Say about Peak Oil 2010
(c) 2007 The Gideon Samid BiPSA Company