"PeakOilWhen?" Background The PeakOilWhen Initiative Leadership and Execution The Vision Contact Background: The Controversy: The energy crisis is on everybody's mind these days. "Oil is running out" warn the experts, some displaying a Biblical rage, "...And we should be ready with some alternatives -- or else!" "...And whatever we choose, we better be kind to our shared, ever precarious, environment before Global Warming seals our fate." Many respond and propose urgent and massive investments in new ways to quench the increasing thirst for energy on our record populated planet. Others are advocating drastic conservation. Albeit the opposite argument is vocal too: "No need to panic, drastic conservation is an overkill, oil is plentiful, the Peak is way out there, and anyway, the marketplace will ease in the best oil-replacement in due time, using the private sector, acting through the wonders of capitalism. The 'peak-stick' is a means by 'socialists' to wrestle control from business to government." We Cannot Afford to Pick the Wrong Prediction. If the Peak arrives strategically earlier than policy-expected, global instability, collapse of the weakest, will likely be our lot. If we are driven to 'whatever the consequences' action by unfounded fear of an imminent oil shortage, we will likely damage the environment with dirty energy, and siphon away resources from promising long-range solutions. The Science: From a sceintific point of view the accurate fulfillment of Hubbert's US Peak-Oil Prediction, validates the logic that predicts the global peak. The question of "When?" is not settled though. It is by all accounts a complicated issue to resolve because the answer relies on a host of knowledge disciplines, requiring more than a single bright expert in one or two of those knowledge areas. The Peak depends on what there is down there, how easy or how costly is to pump out. It depends on the forecast for the cost and availability of alterntive sources. It is a question of the economic growth of mainly China and India, and it is impacted by environmentally driven behaviroal changes in the West. Neither one of these factors can be computed with comfortable certainty, and hence no one can scientifically proclaim an immutable precise date. The Politics: Politicians talk the talk these days, but when it comes to walking the walk, they tend to hide behind the raging debate, and claim that the issue is not settled yet, and no sooner would the scientists agree on a date, than the powers that be will rise to meet that challenge. Well, if this PeakOilWhen Initiative successfully rounds up most of the experts on all sides of the issue, then the outcome will reflect, for better or for worse, what we as a society, as repsresented by our experts, think of this critical issue. And hence the global peak will be handled by global opinion, producing the most credible estimate, the estimate that kills any valid excuse for inaction. The PeakOilWhen Initiative Purpose: To develop a Global Best Estimate for the timing of Global Peak Oil in order to leverage the powers that be into a decisive remedial action. Method: An aggressive outreach to oil-thoughtful people everywhere, extracting their wisdom in an integrable way, integrating those opinions through a scientific, results-neutral methodology; completely transparent, totaly exposed to critique and indepedent evaluation. Tool: BiPSA: Binary Polling Scenrio Analysis. A scientifically sanctioned procedure developed by Dr. Gideon Samid, head of the Innovation Appraisal Group at The Department of Chemical Engineering at Case Western Reserve University. Please read: [BiPSA: From Controversy to Consensus] Read more. Leadership and Execution The PeakOilWhen initiative is commissioned by the School of Engineering at Case Western Reserve University, under the leadership of its Dean, Professor Norman Tien. The School is preparing a comprehensive energy initiative with PeakOilWhen at its core. The work is carried out by The BiPSA Co. at Rockville, Maryland which holds the rights to the tool and the methodology, granting licenses for various applications. Vision The unified PeakOilWhen statement, faithfully integrating the voice of every oil thoughtful person who cared enough to contribute his opinion will reflect the wisdom of human society as a whole, giving measured credence to its most thoughtful experts. This global peak oil opinion will by the way it was formed offer a plain challenge to corporate and government leaders everwhere: "You have before you the best current estimate for Peak Oil, what are you going to do about it?". We envision that the gravity of the danger, and the accumulated credibility of the estimate will start the ball rolling: more plans and more programs will be proposed, debated, and eventually acted-upon. The oil and energy community will request an update for this PeakOilWhen estimate, and as things begin to happen, this Case Western PeakOilWhen appraisal will become an anticipated fixture in the global effort to keep the planet energy rich. Contact The School of Engineering at Case Western Reserve University 10900 Euclid Avenue Cleveland, Ohio 44106 Phone: 216.368.4436 Points of Contact: Dr. Iwan Alexander Head, Case Energy Initiative Dr. Gideon Samid Head, Case Innovation Appraisal Group Phone: 571.214.9814 The BiPSA Co. 13 Tapiola Ct. Rockville, MD 20850 301.424.7990 binarypower@bipsa.com Your Thoughtful Opinion Makes a Difference. Vote!
(c) 2007 The Gideon Samid BiPSA Company